Which Candidates Are Still Viable?

First, time for some eliminations in the current Presidential campaign. For the Democrats, Chris Dodd and Joe Bidden have dropped out. Neither ever had a chance and would have served the American people better by actually getting something done in the Senate where they are both committee chairmen. Bill Richardson continues to hang on but he is running more for Vice President than President. Dennis Kucinich is just there for comic relief.

For the Republicans, Ron Paul is entertaining, but not a serious candidate. I did enjoy his rant at Chairman Ben Bernake the last time the Chairman testified before Congress. Is Duncan Hunter still in the race? Who knows. Fred Thompson is the only true conservative in the GOP race but is not mounting a serious campaign. His wife seems more inspiring then Fred.

I'm sure I've forgotten some candidates. But if I have, then they are not relevant anyway. Who remains? The survivors are Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama John Edwards for the Democrats and Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans.

I will be very surprised if John Edwards increases his position from distant third. His angry populist rhetoric will be drowned out by Obama's polished populist rhetoric and the Clinton political machine.

Barack Obama almost beat Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, a state where the demographics are almost all white. As the campaign moves into states where there is a higher percentage of black voters, like South Carolina (one third of Democratic voters are black), he could post very strong results. Barack won the younger vote in New Hampshire by a factor of 3 to 1. Barack's positions are very, very liberal. But he is rarely challenged by the press. NBC's correspondent assigned to cover him was caught on video saying he was so caught up in Obama that he could not be objective. The media is giving Obama a pass. I'll be surprised if the Clinton machine doesn't put a full court press on getting negative stories run in the press.

Hillary Clinton's campaign continues to waver between the professional machine we've come to expect from the Clinton's and surprisingly stupid gaffs. The latest inexplicable stumble was in a recent New Hampshire rally. The rally was held in an auditorium with an overflow room set up nearby. The rally was not particularly well attended and there was plenty of room in the auditorium. But the Clinton campaign split the attendees, put a bunch in the overflow room, making them very disappointed and angry not to be able to see Hillary Clinton live. I guess the Clinton campaign wanted the press to report that they had to use the overflow room. Very silly.

But Hillary Clinton being able to take down her guard and be human certainly helped her with her female base. She will continue to be a formidable candidate with the biggest "machine" and a strong national ground game. In fact, I believe that the Clinton's ability to execute a superior ground game was the difference in Hillary Clinton besting Obama in New Hampshire when the polls predicted an Obama landslide.

Rudy Giuliani got off to a fast start but has faded. He has not done well in either Iowa or New Hampshire. He has much stronger positions in later state primaries, but I wonder how many losses he can absorb and still execute a "late state" strategy. Mike Huckabee dominated Iowa but was a distant third in New Hampshire. I believe the Mike Huckabee will struggle to establish himself as a national candidate. He is an excellent debater and extemporaneous speaker. But his record in Arkansas will ultimately be his downfall. He doesn't have a machine but Christian groups and homeschoolers have self-organized to Huckabee's benefit. I suppose if Jimmy Carter could do it maybe Governor Huckabee can too.

John McCain is the tortoise to Rudy's hare. His steady, straight-talking style has won over a lot of voters. His position that we must win in Iraq hurt him early but is looking prescient now. He has cleaned up some of his positions that were hurting him with the GOP base. He came across in New Hampshire as the "grown up" in a field of kids.

Mitt Romney is the manufactured candidate for the GOP, much as Hillary Clinton is the same for the Democrats. But he is smart, articulate and brings the joint credentials of success in business and in government. Governor Romney's positions are right in the sweet spot of the GOP base, but there are doubts about the strength of his convictions. Hillary Clinton has no convictions or policy principles - only the ambition to win at any cost.

As an aside, Mitt Romney has the best web site by far. It is well designed. It is easy to review the candidate's positions. It is easy to see what Governor Romney has said about critical subjects. Hillary Clinton's web site is a close second, but does not do as good a job at making her positions and policies crystal clear. John McCain's web site is uninspiring. Barack Obama's site overwhelms you with the sheer number of policy proposals. It is almost like Obama got together with MoveOn.org and brainstormed as many liberal items as they could come up with. In a word, it is less focused. John Edwards' site is long-winded, just like the candidate.

Unfortunately, I do not believe that Nicolas Sarcozy is eligible to run for President of the United States.

Postscript: as I wrote this blog entry, Bill Richardson dropped out of the race.