The Democrat's Gordian Knot

The Democratic Party has a well earned reputation for making it as hard as possible on themselves to win the White House. Think Dukakis in the tank, Walter Mondale or Eugene McCarthy in any situation, Edmund Muskie breaking down in tears. Bill Clinton is the only politically talented Democrat to run for the White House since LBJ. And of course, Mr. Clinton has his own peccadilloes.

This year may be the hardest yet. First Howard Dean imposes the primary death penalty on Michigan and Florida for moving their primary dates up against the wishes of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Hillary campaigned in those states anyway but Barack Obama did not. The Obama campaign has now outmanuveured Clinton to thwart any do-overs in Michigan and Florida. Senator Obama believes he can win the nomination without those two states, with the help of the superdelegates. A do-over in these states would probably only have helped Clinton.

Now it gets interesting. The first task at the national convention in Denver will be for the Credentials Committee to decide what delegates will be seated. There are 186 committee members. 25 are named by Howard Dean and he has done so. The Credentials Committee will have to wrestle with whether to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. The 186 could effectively decide the nomination. They can override Chairman Dean and seat the delegates from the banned states, or they can work out some other solution.

Much has already been said about the superdelegates. They are free to vote for whomever they want. The bottom line is that the nomination is going to be negotiated, or brokered, which will lead to bitterness on the losing side. Polls are showing that one in five Democrats may bolt to McCain if their Democratic choice does not prevail at the convention.

If it does come down to the superdelgates Hillary may be in even more trouble than she is in now. Mareen Doud in today's New York Times writes that, "If Jimmy Carter, Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi are the dealmakers, it won’t take Hercule Poirot to figure out who had knives out for Hillary in this “Murder on the Orient Express.”

None of these superdelegates are fans of the Clintons and their bare knuckles, entitlement style. In fact, it seems clear that Clinton fatigue has finally set in on the Democratic Party. Even once loyal Clintonista, Bill Richardson, jumped on the Obama bandwagon, and was promptly and savagely trashed by the Clinton campaign (I'm pretty sure calling out someone as a "Judas" is ill-mannered, especially at Easter).

As the Democrats attempt to unravel the Gordian Knot, it seems likely that Barack Obama will be the nominee. I don't think Obama can win against McCain in the general election. He lacks experience. Reverend Wright will weigh like a millstone around neck. He has been beaten by Hillary Clinton in the large, critically important states like Ohio and Texas. Senator Clinton is going to win huge in Pennsylvania. If you can't win Ohio you can't win the White House.

It is easy for me to envision an exhausted and embittered Hillary Clinton at a concession news conference channeling 1960 Richard Nixon, "You won't have Hillary Clinton to kick around any more!" Good riddance.